Hi everyone, I just published a new report, and wanted to share some key insights on the potentially best time to DCA, since a lot of people DCA at many different places and likely won’t see River’s research.
For what it’s worth, I’ve never seen this data shared in many years of being into Bitcoin.
For those unfamiliar, Dollar-Cost Averaging is a way to spread out an investment to decrease exposure to volatility and passively invest in bitcoin in the long run with minimal time investment.
It’s a very popular feature for us because we don’t charge any (hidden) fees on it, but as a result we also get a lot of questions from people on when it is the smartest to set up. That’s what this research aims to help answer.
Historically, the daily high price happened within a 4-hour window 38.5% of the time, and the daily low price happened within that same 4-hour window 39.4% of the time.
This pattern has shifted over time and the window has shrunk. The likely reason for this window is that it has the highest odds of many American, European, and Asian traders being awake at the same time.
2. From 12-1 PM Eastern time, there is a one-hour window with over 3 times as many price bottoms than peaks in the past twelve months. This hour has a 4.37% theoretical advantage for daily recurring orders relative to any day’s average. You can convert this time to your own timezone if needed.
3. Mondays have historically had the highest odds of having the weekly low price relative to the weekly high price falling on this day. This day has a 14.36% theoretical advantage for weekly recurring orders relative to any week’s average.
4. The first and second days of each month have historically had the highest odds of having the lowest price relative to the monthly high price happening on those days. A monthly recurring order on these days gives a 6.83% and 3.73% theoretical advantage relative to any month’s average, while on the last three days of the month, there is a 3.11%, 6.83%, and 6.21% higher chance to buy a monthly high than a monthly low.
5. Due to the variance of the exact moments when price peaks and bottoms happen, the achievable practical advantage on timing a recurring order is around 1.2%. For most investors this is nothing to write home about, but if you are really trying to stack as many sats as possible, it could help you.
The 1.2% was calculated by backtesting a range of moments and timeframes. I added a video on Twitter that shows how you can do this kind of analysis yourself with ChatGPT if you don’t have the data and visualization skills.
Disclaimer: It’s important to remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. Your results will certainly vary or it may not work at all.
Hope this was helpful, if you’re interested in the full report, you can check it out here.
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