– A survey conducted in the US by Harris Poll, with financial support from Grayscale, revealed that over 56% of voters are more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who supports the crypto industry. According to the survey results, almost 40% of voters now pay attention to a candidate’s stance on digital assets (in December 2023, this figure did not exceed 34%). Additionally, nearly 45% of cryptocurrency holders believe that the Democratic Party, represented by presidential candidate Kamala Harris, is more favourable to the industry, while 42% indicated support for the Republicans, with candidate Donald Trump.
Analysts also noted that the growing interest in virtual currencies is linked to the launch of spot BTC-ETF and ETH-ETF trading. Nearly 30% of those surveyed by Harris Poll stated that these new products increased their interest in investing in digital assets. Around 46% expressed a desire to add cryptocurrencies to their investment portfolios.
A similar survey, conducted by the crypto exchange Coinbase and Morning Consult, showed that votes among digital asset holders were evenly split: 47% supporting Kamala Harris and another 47% backing Donald Trump. Despite some discrepancies with the Harris Poll data, the results of both surveys clearly indicate that crypto investors will become an important group capable of influencing the outcome of the US presidential election on 5 November.
– October has historically been associated with a rise in bitcoin’s price. Analysts at QCP Capital have calculated that over the past nine years, the leading cryptocurrency has increased in value eight times during October, with an average growth of 22.9%. If this pattern repeats itself, it could drive BTC above $78,000, marking new all-time highs. Currently, bitcoin is consolidating within the $60,000–$70,000 range, sparking speculation about a potential bullish breakout, possibly influenced by the upcoming US presidential election. Additionally, analysts have noted that the inflow of funds into spot BTC-ETFs has remained consistently positive for the eighth consecutive day, reflecting a similar trend to Q1 of this year. On Monday, 1 October alone, these funds saw inflows exceeding $61 million.
– Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, noted that since the summer, following the release of data on business activity (PMI) in the US manufacturing sector, the crypto market has seen a decline of approximately 10%.
“Manufacturing activity is once again declining,” writes the analyst, “and it could decrease further due to the dockworker strikes that began on 30 September at several of the largest ports in the US. This will negatively impact the crypto industry.” Thielen added, “Forecast indicators have dropped to levels close to recessionary territory. If the PMI falls below 48.0, it could trigger a further decline in bitcoin, while a higher figure could lead to a rally.” Additionally, Thielen pointed out that uncertainty in the crypto market is further exacerbated by the potential increase in the key interest rate by the Bank of Japan as part of its ongoing policy of tightening (QT).
– Financial strategists at one of the world’s largest banks, JPMorgan, have stated that flagship cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin can be useful for diversifying an equity portfolio. In their [controversial] opinion, digital assets have minimal correlation with traditional market assets. Therefore, JPMorgan believes they can provide effective risk hedging. “Reallocating a stock portfolio and adding 1% of total assets to cryptocurrencies could be an effective strategy for improving investment efficiency and overall portfolio returns, adjusted for risk,” the bank’s strategists commented. By investing such a small portion of assets in BTC, an investor would not suffer significant losses even if the price of the flagship cryptocurrency were to drop sharply. On the other hand, an increase in bitcoin’s market value amidst a decline in commodity and raw materials investment instruments could reduce overall losses. However, JPMorgan economists point out that their recommendations apply specifically to the aforementioned markets and are less effective in the currency markets, for instance, in pairs with the dollar or yen.
Previously, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, remarked that leading financial advisors are increasingly recommending that their clients invest in cryptocurrencies. Although, in our view, their advice for investors to hold just 1% in bitcoin is hardly a bold or revolutionary move.
– The Chinese authorities have issued the first-ever crypto licence to ZA Bank. This makes the company the first digital bank in Hong Kong, a special administrative and economic region of China, to be permitted to conduct cryptocurrency operations. The decision, which allowed the bank to enter this market, was made following a year-long discussion with mainland Chinese regulators and Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC). Previously, ZA Bank had announced that, upon receiving the licence, it would be ready to serve companies issuing their own stablecoins and to open custody accounts for crypto assets.
– Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, the largest private holder of bitcoin, shared a chart illustrating the price changes of his company’s stock, BTC, and the S&P 500 index. Since MicroStrategy made its first bitcoin purchase in August 2020, the company’s assets have appreciated by 1,325%. During the same period, bitcoin’s price increased by only 451%, while the S&P 500 rose by “just” 71%.
As a result, MicroStrategy’s shares have outperformed the leading cryptocurrency by nearly three times in profitability and have exceeded the performance of companies in the S&P 500 by more than 18 times. Since the start of this year alone, MicroStrategy’s shares have risen by 152%. At the end of September, the company raised an additional $2.1 billion to buy more bitcoin, bringing its holdings to 252,220 BTC, or 1.3% of the total supply.
– According to Ryan Lee, the Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, the price of ETH in October is expected to range between $2,200 and $3,400. Among the key factors influencing the asset’s price, the expert highlighted the reduction of the US Federal Reserve’s key interest rate. Lee stated that once this rate aligns with Ethereum’s staking yield, currently at 3.5% per annum, ETH will once again become an attractive investment tool. Therefore, a decrease in the interest rate will positively affect the coin’s value.
Another factor is the release of EigenLayer (EIGEN) tokens and their subsequent listing on exchanges. This could attract additional capital into the ecosystem, potentially enabling ETH to outpace bitcoin and Solana (SOL) in terms of price growth. As a third growth factor, Lee pointed to the resurgence of interest in meme tokens. He noted that there is currently an increase in the number of meme-based digital assets on the Ethereum network, such as Neiro (NEIRO). High demand for these tokens is likely to attract new users and boost the popularity of the ETH network. However, the expert did not rule out the possibility of a sharp decline in the cryptocurrency’s value, potentially dropping to $2,200 (it is currently trading at around $2,550).
– Michael Van De Poppe, an expert and founder of the companies Eight and MN Trading, believes that by the end of 2024, the price of the leading cryptocurrency will reach a record $192,000. He suggests that the BTC market is currently experiencing a “perfect storm.” Rising social tensions in many countries, a decline in trust toward traditional financial institutions, and a weakening labour market in the US are pushing investors to turn to assets like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
According to Van De Poppe, as central banks reduce interest rates and increase liquidity to stimulate economic growth, a medium-term rise in the prices of assets such as physical and digital gold is inevitable. The exponentially growing US national debt and further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will serve as powerful catalysts for the cryptocurrency’s price growth. Van De Poppe predicts that in the next cycle, bitcoin’s price could reach between $300,000 and $600,000.
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