(11 October 2019 ) DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:GBP Optimism Has Yet To Consolidate - Analytics & Forecasts - 11 October 2019


The latest developments on the Brexit front have put the Sterling on the sideline following daunting reactions of EU leaders
over a Brexit deal submitted earlier last week. Yet Thursday’s meeting between British and Irish Prime Ministers Boris Johnson and Leo
Varadkar boosted the British pound as a wave of optimism about an orderly Brexit increased. Although no further details of potential
solutions concerning the Northern Ireland border have been revealed, the unexpected joint statement confirming “a pathway to a possible
deal” should maintain GBP heavily solicited ahead of next week EU Council meeting starting next Thursday, a major event that should weigh on
the Brexit fate.

Despite limited progress in the current Brexit impasse, both sides should resume talks today as well as during the weekend with debates
probably focusing on a customs partnership solution that would allow Northern Ireland to exit the EU customs union with the UK while
enforcing EU customs rules and tariffs on goods entering the region. Nevertheless, risks of a hard Brexit stay high as an exit proposal needs
to be validated by EU leaders during the two-day summit starting on 17 October 2019 while UK Parliament special sitting on 19 October 2019
should either validate the deal agreed or request PM Johnson to ask the EU for another article 50 extension under the Benn Act. However, it is
likely that, in this scenario, the British Prime Minister would bypass the appeal of MPs by sending two separate letters, the first
requesting an extension and the second invalidating it, paving the way towards a no-deal Brexit. Following the GBP rebound, downside risk
is likely to increase looking forward.

By Vincent Mivelaz



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(11 October 2019 ) DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:GBP Optimism Has Yet To Consolidate - Analytics & Forecasts - 11 October 2019
(11 October 2019 ) DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:GBP Optimism Has Yet To Consolidate - Analytics & Forecasts - 11 October 2019
(11 October 2019 ) DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:GBP Optimism Has Yet To Consolidate - Analytics & Forecasts - 11 October 2019
(11 October 2019 ) DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:GBP Optimism Has Yet To Consolidate - Analytics & Forecasts - 11 October 2019
(11 October 2019 ) DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:GBP Optimism Has Yet To Consolidate - Analytics & Forecasts - 11 October 2019

(11 October 2019 ) DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:GBP Optimism Has Yet To Consolidate - Analytics & Forecasts - 11 October 2019

(11 October 2019 ) DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:GBP Optimism Has Yet To Consolidate - Analytics & Forecasts - 11 October 2019